Chapter 4: The Analysis of Foreign Policy


The propaganda campaign is effective in your country.

Popular opinion has turned against Azmenistan. Accompanying this turn is a growing fear of Azmenistan and its nuclear capacity, and rumors abound.

You have widespread support domestically for action against Azmenistan's nuclear program.

However, the campaign was unsuccessful within Azmenistan, and hostility within Azmenistan has grown against your country.

The propaganda campaign provided you with domestic support for action, but dramatically increased tensions between your state and Azmenistan.

What do you do now?

Reverse the propaganda campaignIt's too risky to worsen relations with Azmenistan at this point. Stop before things get out of control, and try to repair relations with Azmenistan.
Offer economic incentivesTell Azmenistan that if it agrees to stop enriching uranium immediately, you will cut tariffs significantly on all agriculture and steel coming from Azmenistan, and will rely more heavily on Azmenistan and less heavily on Brezistan for agriculture and steel, providing both absolute gains and relative gains with respect to Brezistan for Azmenistan.
Coordinate economic sanctionsThe UN is very interested in levying sanctions against Azmenistan, and Brezistan strongly supports the movement. In a joint effort with the UN, agree to stop buying steel and agriculture from Azmenistan and stop selling oil and natural gas to Azmenistan. Replace your steel and agricultural imports by relying more heavily on Brezistan. UN countries will help mitigate the losses of your energy exports.
Invade AzmenistanYou cannot wait for Azmenistan to acquire a nuclear weapon. You think you may have a conventional military advantage, and you need to eliminate Azmenistan's nuclear program before the development of a weapon eliminates your advantage. Send troops to destroy Azmenistan's enrichment facilities.
Pursue diplomacyAsk to meet in person with the Prime Minister of Azmenistan. Perhaps high-level diplomacy can convince Azmenistan to stop enriching, and perhaps eventually could even be used to improve relations between Azmenistan and Brezistan. This path does not require any conflict or economic interruptions.
Cut off all ties with AzmenistanIn effect, pretend Azmenistan does not exist. Allow day-to-day business to go on as usual, but do not make any diplomatic connections with Azmenistan and refuse to acknowledge Azmenistan within the international community. Simply entirely ignore the country.