Chapter 4: The Analysis of Foreign Policy

Outcome:

The United Nations supports sanctions, and strong sanctions are levied against Azmenistan.

Brezistan happily increases trade with your state, and declares it a monumental first step for a closer partnership in the future.

Azmenistan is clearly hurt by the sanctions. After close to two years of attempting to outlast the sanctions and seeking out partners willing to trade in spite of the sanctions, Azmenistan becomes desperate for economic relief.

Azmenistan approaches you and asks you to join negotiations with Azmenistan and other world powers in which Azmenistan will consider nuclear concessions in exchange for relief from sanctions.

What do you do now?

Agree to negotiateThis is the opportunity you have been hoping for. Enter negotiations with the goal of preventing all enrichment of uranium past the level needed for civilian energy, sending international inspectors back into the country, and limiting Azmenistan's nuclear capacity going forward (in exchange for relief from sanctions and a resumption of trade in oil and natural gas at even higher levels to make up for the likely reduction in nuclear energy output).
Refuse to negotiateAzmenistan has been uncooperative in the past, and this offer may not be genuine. Demand that Azmenistan dismantle its nuclear program and allow inspectors to confirm dismantlement, and in exchange offer to negotiate after such inspections.
Increase sanctionsAzmenistan is near the breaking point, and you can push them over the edge, forcing concessions. If you hold strong on sanctions, Azmenistan may be forced to dismantle its nuclear program entirely in an effort to make you reconsider. Stay strong. Do not negotiate.
Invade AzmenistanYou cannot wait for Azmenistan to acquire a nuclear weapon. You think you may have a conventional military advantage, and you need to eliminate Azmenistan's nuclear program before the development of a weapon eliminates your advantage. Send troops to destroy Azmenistan's enrichment facilities.