Chapter 4: The Analysis of Foreign Policy

Outcome:

The apparent enrichment activities continue.

The secrecy around Azmenistan's nuclear program increases, and the IAEA (the UN's nuclear agency), due to satellite imagery, fears that Azmenistan is rapidly developing a weapon, and may be ready to test a nuclear bomb within a year.

Tensions between Azmenistan and Brezistan are growing, and the international community fears that a nuclear-armed Azmenistan will bully Brezistan and dominate the region.

Azmenistan now presents a direct threat to your national interests, both to your security and to your economy.

What do you do now?

Continue to ignore the issueYour relations with Azmenistan are just too important. Partnership comes first. The nuclear program is not a high priority.
Start a propaganda campaignIn your country, use television ads, newspapers, and radio broadcasts to depict Azmenistan as a bully. Additionally, secretly spread anti-nuclear propaganda to the people of Azmenistan in the hopes that Azmenistan's populace will pressure Azmenistan's government to forego its nuclear program.
Offer economic incentivesTell Azmenistan that if it agrees to stop enriching uranium immediately, you will cut tariffs significantly on all agriculture and steel coming from Azmenistan, and will rely more heavily on Azmenistan and less heavily on Brezistan for agriculture and steel, providing both absolute gains and relative gains with respect to Brezistan for Azmenistan.
Coordinate economic sanctionsThe UN is very interested in levying sanctions against Azmenistan, and Brezistan strongly supports the movement. In a joint effort with the UN, agree to stop buying steel and agriculture from Azmenistan and stop selling oil and natural gas to Azmenistan. Replace your steel and agricultural imports by relying more heavily on Brezistan. UN countries will help mitigate the losses of your energy exports.
Invade AzmenistanYou cannot wait for Azmenistan to acquire a nuclear weapon. You think you may have a conventional military advantage, and you need to eliminate Azmenistan's nuclear program before the development of a weapon eliminates your advantage. Send troops to destroy Azmenistan's enrichment facilities.
Pursue diplomacyAsk to meet in person with the Prime Minister of Azmenistan. Perhaps high-level diplomacy can convince Azmenistan to stop enriching, and perhaps eventually could even be used to improve relations between Azmenistan and Brezistan. This path does not require any conflict or economic interruptions.